WW2 – Bolt Action – Squad Composition – Hysnaps Politics, Gaming, Music and Mental Health

So as any of you who have read my previous post may have noticed, I have upto this point had a rather slap dash approach to construction forces. That is I get a box of shiny new figures and then try to build as many unique miniatures out of it as possible, then look to see what kind of list I can build.

This has its draw backs – like my redundant 2nd Bazooka team for the late war free French – or the masses of SMG armed troops thats mean I need to field lots of smaller squads. I recently have been thinking – is there a way to quantify whether large squads are better than small squads – is taking an LMG worth it, are Assault rifles and SMG’s worth their price premiums etc.

To this end I built myself a squad impact value comparator. This is a very rough Google Sheet which allows me to plug in 2 versions of a squad and look at its estimated impact, now we all know that Bolt Action is a game of dice – so all I can work with is expected outcomes assuming a normal distribution of dice results.

For the less mathematical or statistical this means assuming the dice is fair i.e. the chance of any result is the same so for a D6 that is 1 in 6 what result is most likely to happen – now alas no die is truly fair – turns out that yes GW Bloodbowl dice do roll more 1’s and yes someone did actually do research to prove this, there is also a reason that Casinos use sharp edged dice with numbers painted on and that these are known as “precision” dice.

So complex maths over – how am I going to assess a unit?

I am going to define survivability as the number of rounds a unit will last under fire from a 10 man regular rifle squad assuming the squad starts at the limit of rifle range and moves forward 6″ each turn, the number of hits caused on a unit are therefore standardised, their survivability will depend on their quality with inexperienced forces suffering a casualty 2/3rds of the time for a hit, a regular unit suffering a casualty 1/2 the time and a veteran unit suffering a casualty 1/3rd of the time. A moral check will be triggered when over 50% of the unit has been lost and at this point I will deem it as no longer operational, yes I know this is not totally in line with the rules but to undertake the analysis some assumptions need to be made.

Impact will be calculated based on the average number of hits the unit will deliver per turn – this will be worked out as an average of hits achieved for the full unit at 3″,6″,12″,18″,24″,30″,36″ and 42″ times by the number of rounds calculated under the survivability measure. This will provide an estimated number of hits the unit will cause before becoming no longer operational, the total cost of the unit will then be divided by this figure to give a standardised measure of cost per hit for comparison and this will be used to undertake the comparisons of impactfulness.

So to summarise

Survivability = number of rounds before unit will be below 50% strength if under fire from a 10 man regular rifle squad starting at max rifle range.
Impact = average of estimated hits full unit will achieve at 3″, 6″, 12*,18″, 24″, 30″, 36″ and 42″
Estimated total hits = survivability * Impact
Impactfulness = total unit cost/ estimated total hits

No account will be made initially of special traits such as Fanatics, Tough Fighters, etc nor the impact of Indirect Weapons – such as Rifle Grenades, nor any AT capabilities. No impact for moving and firing will be taken into account when calculating the Impact – yes this will disadvantage SMGs and Assault rifles but this is a first draft of the model.

Survivability

Estimated hits for a 10 man regular squad armed with rifles

Range	3″	6″	12″	18″	24″
Hits	6.67	5.00	5.00	3.33	3.33

Estimated Cumulative Hits per round

Rounds	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Vet Kills	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12
Reg Kills	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	18
Inexp Kills	2	4	7	10	14	18	22	26

Survivability by Quality

Squad Size	Inexperienced	Regular	Veteran
5	2	3	3
6	2	3	3
7	2	3	4
8	2	3	4
9	3	4	5
10	3	4	5
11	3	4	5
12	3	4	5
13	3	5	6
14	3	5	6
15	4	5	6
16	4	5	6
17	4	5	7
18	4	5	7
19	4	6	7
20	4	6	7

IMPACTFULNESS CALCULATOR

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11ldLv2nB71JEnAUtzJQK2umlDTSiNaxCLhzHd4-3G24/edit?usp=sharing

COMPARISON OF RESULTS

For this initial run I’ve only looked at 6 squad mixes – 5 rifles, 7 rifles, 9 rifles, 10 rifles, 3 rifles and 1 Lmg, 5 rifles and 1 LMG, 7 rifles and 1 LMG and 8 rifles and 1 LMG, I have then compared these across the 3 quality levels.

Quality	Squad Size	Points Cost	Rifle	LMG	Surviv ability	Impact	ETH	Impact fulness
Regular	9	110	7	1	4	3.62	14.50	7.59
Regular	10	120	8	1	4	3.92	15.67	7.66
Regular	9	90	9	0	4	2.63	10.50	8.57
Regular	10	100	10	0	4	2.92	11.67	8.57
Regular	5	70	3	1	3	2.46	7.37	9.49
Regular	7	90	5	1	3	3.04	9.12	9.85
Veteran	9	148	7	1	4	3.62	14.50	10.21
Veteran	10	162	8	1	4	3.92	15.67	10.34
Regular	5	50	5	0	3	1.46	4.38	11.43
Regular	7	70	7	0	3	2.04	6.12	11.43
Inexperienced	9	83	7	1	3	2.31	6.94	11.96
Veteran	9	126	9	0	4	2.63	10.50	12.00
Inexperienced	10	90	8	1	3	2.50	7.50	12.00
Veteran	10	140	10	0	4	2.92	11.67	12.00
Inexperienced	9	63	9	0	3	1.69	5.06	12.44
Inexperienced	10	70	10	0	3	1.88	5.63	12.44
Veteran	5	92	3	1	3	2.46	7.37	12.48
Veteran	7	120	5	1	3	3.04	9.12	13.15
Veteran	5	70	5	0	3	1.46	4.38	16.00
Veteran	7	98	7	0	3	2.04	6.12	16.00
Inexperienced	5	55	3	1	2	1.56	3.13	17.60
Inexperienced	7	62	5	1	2	1.94	3.88	17.81
Inexperienced	5	35	5	0	2	0.94	1.88	18.67
Inexperienced	7	49	7	0	2	1.31	2.63	18.67

The lower the Impactfulness score the better – as this means the unit costs less per hit, therefore in a list you can take more and cause a greater impact :-).

There are a couple of surprises in the results – such as the up cost for Veterans does not appear to be worth it – in a way this is not surprising with the methodology used, as no impact of their higher Base Morale nor their Close Combat effectiveness has been included. Basically in a pure firefight you might as well take Regulars.

The next version of this I will try to include the impact of the Veterans Morale. From the figures above the following can be stated –

9 men are better value than 10 – this is a previously know fact as the morale test is forced when 50% or more casualties have been taken (yes I know this should be in 1 round)
LMG’s are worth the cost as the extended range gives the squad longer to inflict damage and does more damage than their cost alternative, this appears to be true both at Veteran and Regular quality levels.
Cost wise – 8 Inexperienced Riflemen with 1 LMG is better value than 9 veteran riflemen.
With Veterans – take your LMG and go big or go home.

I know this isn’t perfect but it has given me something to think about – I hope it does for you 2.